McDonald Hopkins Government Strategies Advisory: The Road to Cleveland -- July 10, 2015
The debates
FOX News announces second tier forum for Cleveland debate
On August 6, Cleveland will play host to the first debate of the Republican presidential primary season, which is being organized by FOX News. With the GOP field of aspirants at 17 – and growing – organizers announced in May that they intend to limit the debate to the top 10 candidates as determined by an average of national polls.
In response to criticism over the expected exclusion of several big name candidates who don’t fall in the top 10, FOX has decided to add a forum on the afternoon of August 6 in Cleveland for any candidate who falls outside the top 10 but still registers at one percent in the national polls. [more]
March Madness approach to who’s in and who’s out
Every spring, a nation of college basketball fans starts debating what teams will make the NCAA tournament and what teams will fall short. Inevitably the debate focuses on the so-called “bubble teams,” teams who aren’t locks to get in but aren’t locks to get left behind either. As we start to look ahead to the first GOP debate in Cleveland on August 6, the question of who will be on stage, and who will be left off, is starting to feel like March Madness. The focus, like in debates about the NCAA tourney, is about the bubble. In this case, it’s the handful of candidates who aren’t polling well enough to be guaranteed a spot on the stage in August, but who are still hoping that a couple of good polls will put them there. [more]
Debates may weaken clout of NH and Iowa
Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire have enjoyed a special place in the nominating process. Iowa – as the first in the nation caucus – and New Hampshire – as the first in the nation primary – have been the critical early tests of a candidate’s strength, and voters in the two states have been given the ability to winnow down a field of candidates from many to just a few. This cycle, however, the Republican side is shaping up a little differently. Given the size of the field, 17 and growing, and the rules limiting participation in the first two debates to the top 10 (as decided by a compilation of national polls), candidates are spending less time focusing on Iowa and New Hampshire and more time trying to build a national brand. [more]
The RNC powerless to keep Trump out of debates
Since he launched his campaign last month, businessman and entertainer Donald Trump has done what many in the party feared a Trump run would do – suck up much of the oxygen in the race. Not only has Trump stolen the headlines, he has also jumped up in the polls. Two national polls, released after his campaign launch, put Trump in second place nationally behind only former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL). Privately, and even publicly, some Republican donors are beginning to fear that debates with Trump on stage could be damaging to the party. The RNC, however, is powerless to do anything to keep Trump out, even if they want to do so. [more]
The top 10 according to polling averages right now
Top 10 – Who would appear on stage in the first debate
| Jeb Bush | 16.3% |
| Scott Walker | 10.5% |
| Ben Carson | 9.8% |
| Marco Rubio | 9.3% |
| Mike Huckabee | 7.8% |
| Rand Paul | 7.3% |
| Donald Trump | 6.5% |
| Ted Cruz | 4.0% |
| Rick Perry | 3.8% |
| Chris Christie | 3.3% |
The rest of the pack
| Rick Santorum | 2.3% |
| Carly Fiorina | 2.0% |
| John Kasich | 1.5% |
| Bobby Jindal | 1.3% |
| Lindsey Graham | 1.3% |
The contestants (The latest additions to the field in June and early July)
Donald Trump, Businessman and Entertainer [more]
Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana [more]
Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey [more]
Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida [more]
Lindsey Graham, Senator from South Carolina [more]
Rick Perry, former Governor of Texas [more]
Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia [more]
The horse race
National
The Economist/YouGov
July 4-6, 2015
452 Republican or Republican leaning voters
Donald Trump 15%
Rand Paul 11%
Jeb Bush 11%
Scott Walker 9%
Marco Rubio 9%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Ben Carson 7%
Chris Christie 6%
Ted Cruz 4%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Rick Perry 3%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
John Kasich 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
George Pataki 0%
CNN
June 26-28, 2015
401 Republican or Republican leaning voters: Margin of error +/-5%
Jeb Bush 19%
Donald Trump 12%
Mike Huckabee 8%
Ben Carson 7%
Rand Paul 7%
Scott Walker 6%
Marco Rubio 6%
Rick Perry 4%
Chris Christie 4%
Ted Cruz 3%
Rick Santorum 3%
Bobby Jindal 2%
John Kasich 2%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
George Pataki 0%
Fox News Poll
June 21-23, 2015
378 likely Republican primary voters nationwide
Jeb Bush 15%
Donald Trump 11%
Ben Carson 10%
Rand Paul 9%
Scott Walker 9%
Marco Rubio 8%
Mike Huckabee 6%
Ted Cruz 4%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Rick Santorum 3%
Chris Christie 2%
John Kasich 2%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Rick Perry 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
George Pataki 1%
Key Early States
Iowa
Quinnipiac - June 20-28, 2015
668 likely Republican caucus goers in IA: Margin of error +/-3.8%
Scott Walker 18%
Donald Trump 10%
Ben Carson 10%
Rand Paul 9%
Ted Cruz 9%
Jeb Bush 8%
Marco Rubio 7%
Mike Huckabee 5%
Rick Perry 4%
Rick Santorum 4%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Bobby Jindal 3%
John Kasich 2%
Chris Christie 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
George Pataki 0%
New Hampshire
CNN/WMUR - June 18-24, 2015
402 likely Republican primary voters in NH: Margin of error +/-4.9%
Jeb Bush 16%
Donald Trump 11%
Rand Paul 9%
Scott Walker 8%
Marco Rubio 6%
Carly Fiorina 6%
Chris Christie 5%
Ben Carson 5%
Rick Perry 4%
Ted Cruz 3%
Mike Huckabee 2%
John Kasich 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
George Pataki 1%
Bobby Jindal 0%
Other States
North Carolina
PPP - July 2-6, 2015
288 Republican primary voters in NC: Margin of error +/-5.8%
Donald Trump 16%
Jeb Bush 12%
Scott Walker 12%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Ben Carson 9%
Marco Rubio 9%
Rand Paul 7%
Ted Cruz 6%
Chris Christie 5%
Carly Fiorina 4%
Rick Perry 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
John Kasich 0%
George Pataki 0%
Florida
Gravis Marketing - June 16-20, 2015
729 registered Republican voters in FL: Margin of error +/-3.6%
Jeb Bush 28%
Marco Rubio 23%
Scott Walker 9%
Rand Paul 9%
Carly Fiorina 6%
Mike Huckabee 5%
Ted Cruz 5%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Michigan
PPP - June 25-28, 2015
465 Republican primary voters in MI: Margin of error +/-4.7%
Scott Walker 15%
Donald Trump 14%
Ben Carson 14%
Jeb Bush 14%
Marco Rubio 9%
Mike Huckabee 8%
Chris Christie 5%
Ted Cruz 5%
Rand Paul 4%
Carly Fiorina 3%
John Kasich 3%
Rick Santorum 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Rick Perry 1%
Bobby Jindal 0%
George Pataki 0%
New Jersey
Fairleigh Dickinson - June 15-21, 2015
267 Republicans in NJ: Margin of error +/-6.3%
Chris Christie 18%
Jeb Bush 18%
Donald Trump 11%
Scott Walker 9%
Ben Carson 6%
Rand Paul 5%
Ted Cruz 3%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Mike Huckabee 3%
George Pataki 2%
Rick Perry 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Bobby Jindal 0%
John Kasich 0%
Kentucky
PPP - June 18-21, 2015413 Republican primary voters in KY: Margin of error +/-4.8%
Rand Paul 19%
Jeb Bush 13%
Donald Trump 12%
Scott Walker 11%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Marco Rubio 10%
Ben Carson 7%
Ted Cruz 4%
Carly Fiorina 4%
The money
Bush hauls in more than $114 million
The campaign of former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), coupled with allied Super PACs, raised an eye-popping $114 million in the first six months of the year. The official campaign raised a little more than $11 million in the two weeks since he announced his bid, the lion’s share of the record smashing fundraising was undertaken by Super PACs supporting Governor Bush’s presidential bid. [more]
Bush leads, Cruz and Carson exceed expectations
As fundraising numbers roll in, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is expected to have the largest haul of any of the Republican hopefuls – indeed, that’s exactly what people close to his campaign are saying publicly. While Bush is likely to lead the group in fundraising, a couple of candidates – freshman Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and political neophyte Ben Carson (R-MD) – have exceeded expectations. [more]
The quotes of the month
"What can be simpler or more accurately stated? The Mexican Government is forcing their most unwanted people into the United States. They are, in many cases, criminals, drug dealers, rapists, etc. It wasn't until a week after my announcement that people started to totally distort these very easy to understand words.” – Businessman and presidential candidate Donald Trump (R-NY).
"I would be delighted to have a debate with Donald Trump on this issue, and Donald, let me tell you right now I am willing to debate you here in New Hampshire, mano a mano, anytime on the issue of immigration and pit your ideas against my solutions. I hope you say, 'yes,'" – former NY Governor, and current presidential hopeful, George Pataki (R-NY).
Steven C. LaTourette, President | 202.559.2600
McDonald Hopkins Government Strategies LLC
101 Constitution Avenue NW, Suite 600 East, Washington, D.C. 20001
IMPORTANT NOTICE:
Although McDonald Hopkins Government Strategies LLC is owned by the law firm McDonald Hopkins LLC, McDonald Hopkins Government Strategies is not a law firm and does not provide legal services. Accordingly, the retention of McDonald Hopkins Government Strategies does not create a client-lawyer relationship and the protections of the client-lawyer relationship, such as attorney-client privilege and the ethics rules pertaining to conduct by lawyers, do not apply.